QUICK LINKS
Orlando2-5MagicTT 111.0–
9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center
Phoenix1-5 B2BSunsTT 112.5–
Miami3-5 B2BHeat–
10:00 PM ETChase Center
Golden State5-3Warriors–
⭐ Projected Winners (1)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Anthony Black o1.5 3PM ORL @ PHX
Soft vs SG all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 2 of 10
Over in 2 of the last 10 games
2
Brandin Podziemski o2.5 3PM MIA @ GSW
Soft vs SG all season (#29) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 4 of 10
Over in 4 of the last 10 games
3
Desmond Bane o3.5 AST ORL @ PHX
Soft vs SF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
4
Miles Bridges o16.5 PTS ORL @ PHX
Soft vs PF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · 11.5 FGA L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
5
Stephen Curry o4.5 3PM MIA @ GSW
Soft vs PG all season (#29) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
6
Wendell Carter Jr. o8.5 REB ORL @ PHX
Soft vs C all season (#30) + L7 (#29) · 14.4 chances/Gm L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
7
Yaxel Lendeborg o0.5 STL MIA @ GSW
Soft vs SF all season (#29) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
8
Will Richard o1 STL MIA @ GSW
Soft vs SF all season (#29) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Nikola Vucevic PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Jalen Suggs PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Rayan Rupert PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Jevon Carter PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Goga Bitadze PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Noah Penda PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
+27 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Brandon Williams o9.5 PTS GSW vs MIA
5/5Last 5
Draymond Green o5.5 AST GSW vs MIA
5/5Last 5
Draymond Green o0.5 STL GSW vs MIA
5/5Last 5
Devin Booker o1.5 3PM PHX vs ORL
5/5Last 5
Desmond Bane o1 STL ORL vs PHX
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 53-36 · 60%＋
53-36 graded60% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
6-3 67%
70 to 79%
26-17 60%
60 to 69%
17-14 55%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Burries | Under 11.5 PTS | 65% | 9 | Hit |
| Mario Hezonja | Over 3.5 REB | 76.1% | 8 | Hit |
| Jakob Poeltl | Over 6.5 PTS | 74% | 8 | Hit |
| Coby White | Over 12.5 PTS | 73.8% | 4 | Miss |
| Cooper Flagg | Under 25.5 PTS | 65% | 19 | Hit |
| Khaman Maluach | Over 6.5 PTS | 70.9% | 6 | Miss |
| Coby White | Over 1.5 REB | 73.5% | 0 | Miss |
| Karlo Matkovic | Over 6.5 PTS | 71.8% | 25 | Hit |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.